Five Predictions for Satellite Communications Market in 2024
21.06.2024
- Consolidation of market players. The consolidation of players inside the satellite communications value chain that was taking place in 2023 will continue. In 2024, this trend will acquire a new dimension, with operators looking to build application-level differentiation in niche markets.
- Direct satellite-to-smartphone transmission of non-modified signal becomes reality. 2023 was big for Direct Satellite-to-Device with the inclusion of Satellite and NTN in 3GPP Release 17, Lynk and AST satellites initial in-orbit testing, and the rush of announcements by the collaborations of Apple/Globalstar and SpaceX/T-Mobile. But 2024 will be even bigger as this market takes off to become the largest satellite opportunity by the end of the decade. Next year will see Apple/Globalstar expanding its services globally, early monetization of Lynk and AST constellations. More players join the race, both established like Iridium (highly anticipated deal upcoming) and startups like OmniSpace. More importantly, 2024 will see initial mainstream chipsets designed for general public smartphones with satellite capabilities. Once Qualcomm and Mediatek are in the mix, the satellite ecosystem will change forever, unlocking a market worth tens of USD billions per year.
- Continued ecosystem convergence of New Space and Telco. The satellite industry continues with its most significant transformation, taking us into new orbits and converging with the telco and IT worlds, all moving towards 5G. Market players will continue to work on the standards and virtualization that is necessary to make the critical shift to the cloud.
- Low-orbit broadband satellite constellations. 2024 will be one of the pivotal years for the future of LEO broadband constellations. Starlink and OneWeb will have to prove to investors that they are able to bring profit and fully competitive with GEO systems. Otherwise, they will have to remain a niche service offering for COTM and military/government applications.
- Development of value-added services. Managed networks will increasingly incorporate satellite into the mix, especially LEOs, to expand connectivity options and the types of supported use cases. For example, LEO satellite networks will be used for connectivity to support network backup capabilities, private wireless networks, emergency communications and infrastructure monitoring in remote areas. Cloud frameworks and platforms for application development have the potential to be game changers. In traditional cloud computing environments data travels from the device to the data centre and back. Edge computing is a framework in which data is stored and processed close to the original device, to avoid latency, because data is processed right where it is generated. The push to edge computing will be driven by the explosion of IoT devices and 5G, as well as by artificial intelligence and machine learning augmenting all business processes across various industries.