GSMA Intelligence is a division of the Global Mobile Operators Association (GSMA) which collects and analyses global mobile operator data and publishes relevant industry reports and research. 

Every year, GSMA Intelligence focuses on new topics with reference to key industry trends. In 2024, the topics were

Artificial Intelligence and eSIM.

According to GSMA analysts, the top trends in 2025 will include 5G fixed wireless access (FWA) and non-terrestrial networks (NTN).  Although both are not new for the ICT industry, GSMA expects strong growth in these sectors and, therefore, has a strong focus on their review.

In 2025, the important areas of development in the telecom industry and generally in the digital ecosystem will be also technology, monetisation and impact. 

In the technology area, special focus will be given to network transformation, consumer 5G, fixed broadband, and eSIM. Experts expect speeding up of 5G adoption and the related market changes. Further development of the Internet of Things will be another driver of the industry growth. 

GSMA Intelligence suggests specifically focusing on monetisation in the context of enterprise digital transformation and consumer 5G, and leveraging B2B opportunities in digital transformation and deriving benefits from network services.

In terms of impact, a key focus will be on value transformation through device and service innovations and digital economy scaling in the light of mobile use and regulatory reforms. Sustainable development practices both in and outside the telecom sector will also advance.

Mobile World Live, another team of authoritative industry analysts, specialises in research based on market players’ surveys. They strive to feel the “breath” of the industry and get a cross-section of the market. This report uses data from 300 respondents, every fifth of whom worked for mobile operators. Little less than 20% of the respondents were software and app designers. 10% represented network infrastructure providers, with the rest from the manufacturing and consulting sectors. Half of the respondents were based in Europe, a quarter in the Americas, and the rest were from Asia and Africa. Below is a brief summary of the two reports mentioned above.

Mobile communications impact on the digital economy 

Mobile communications play a critical role in the digital economy development, providing access to the mobile Internet, which is essential for digital technology development.

Currently, 5.6 billion people are subscribers of mobile communications services, up 1.6 billion versus 2015. 4.7 billion of them are connected to the mobile Internet.

In 2023, mobile technologies and services generated 5.4% of the global GDP (contributing $5.7 trillion to economic added value).

By the end of 2023, the number of mobile Internet users grew to 4.6 billion, or 57% of the global population. Mobile communications also create 35 million jobs. By 2030, the industry's economic value could reach $6.4 trillion. In 2025, mobile operators’ capital costs will grow to $180 billion globally, and from 2025 to 2030, the cumulative costs are estimated at $1.1 trillion.

Artificial Intelligence, accelerating adoption and impact

Telecom operators are actively introducing generative artificial intelligence (AI or GenAI) to improve customer experience and personalise services. 74% of operators have already deployed or are testing commercial GenAI solutions. 33% of entities undergoing digital transformation are already using AI technologies. 75% of consumers are aware of GenAI, of which 59% are users. In turn, over 67% of users are satisfied with their

AI experience.

AI advocates believe it can analyse data to create customised marketing offers, interact with customers successfully, and bill accurately. 55% of Mobile World Live respondents are focused on GenAI solutions and 35% on traditional marketing. 29% of respondents do not use GenAI applications. Of the remaining respondents, 41% say that the technology met their expectations, and 20% say that it exceeded them. Most respondents mention personalisation as a benefit of GenAI: 42% say that GenAI tools adapt more dynamically to users' personal needs. 12% believe that GenAI's key benefit is original content. What stops mobile operators from more active adoption of AI technologies? 40% mention costs are the barrier, 36% are dissatisfied with the employees’ skills, 32% are worried about the lack of repeatability of results, and 28% about the lack of use cases.

In 2024, GSMA Intelligence focused on generative AI technologies development, adoption by operators, and consumer expectations. In 2025, the focus is on the generative AI development in networks, platforms, services and devices.

Network transformation

As of Q3 2024, 57 operators launched 5G service and 88 announced their launch plans, bringing the overall number to 145 operators representing 63 countries. Global mobile operator capital costs will account for $180 billion in 2025.

Separate development areas include consumer 5G and fixed broadband, 5G FWA (fixed wireless access), digital entertainment and services. The deployment of 5G standalone (SA) networks is expected to accelerate and become a gateway to new innovative applications, services and solutions through open APIs, empowering operators to expand the range of services. The anticipated progress in the commercialisation and use cases of APIs will drive operators to provide more flexible and personalised services and accelerate new application and service development.

Private 5G networks, in turn, will enable entities to benefit from this technology without deploying public networks.

5G user services: from adoption to monetisation

5G networks are building reach and becoming more accessible, thus driving demand for devices and services that support this communications standard. The number of connected devices is expected to keep growing to create new opportunities for businesses and consumers. By the end of the decade, mobile data traffic will grow more than four times. New technologies such as AI, eSIM and satellite networks will achieve new types of devices and change the user experience. Cloud gaming and other digital entertainment will gain more popularity, creating a higher demand for related devices and services: 60% of consumers play digital games at least once a week. Consumers will become more demanding in terms of the quality of communications and services, driving new offers on the market.

By the end of 2026, the number of 5G connections will account for 2.6 billion, or 29% of the total number of mobile connections. Currently, 82% of 5G users believe that 5G has met or exceeded their expectations. 5% of mobile consumers wish to upgrade to 5G and agree to pay 5% more against their current 4G subscription. From 2023 to 2030, MNOs will spend $1.5 trillion on capital costs, with more than 3/4 of such costs related to 5G.

The shift to cloud-centric networks is changing the telecommunications landscape, empowering operators to go beyond connectivity by offering cloud services that boost engagement and revenue. Cloud solutions help mobile operators to combine secure, localised and telecommunication integrated services without investing heavily in infrastructure.

As cloud technologies are entering the mainstream for consumers, operators can improve customer experience, raise ARPU, and build brand loyalty like never before. However, for many operators the cost of investment in the cloud is high (41% of market players). Also, 39% of respondents complained about strong competition from mega-players.

Such huge costs obviously make 5G monetisation the industry's biggest challenge, with 24% putting it first, 22% mention security, and only 3% are worried about broadband availability.  Among 5G applications, IoT is the leader, with 40% of respondents putting it first. Private networks are not far behind with 38%.

eSIM, scaling to smartphones and IoT terminals

OEMs and mobile operators will continue to design and release devices with eSIM support. This will allow users to easily switch between operators without changing the SIM card. The future will possibly see smartphones using only eSIMs, simplifying network connection and making it more convenient for users. eSIM runs well on machines and sensors, which is appealing for customers in new vertical markets. The technology enables mobile operators to connect a new group of consumer devices: any wearable devices, watches, or tablets. eSIM reduces the costs of making and distributing physical SIM cards. eSIM can become a driver of creating a self-governing flexible telecommunications ecosystem.

2024 was a landmark year for eSIM technology development. In June, GSMA published a version of the new eSIM technical specification for IoT. Players believe that the new version, which has solved a large number of current issues, will drive development of the Internet of Things. 

As at June 2024, close to 440 mobile service providers offered commercial eSIM service for smartphones. In 2025, the number of eSIM smartphone connections is expected to grow by some 70% globally. By 2030, the share of eSIM in total cellular IoT connections is expected to go up 42% (21 countries average). Last year, about half of all responding operators had an eSIM user base of less than 10%. Currently, that figure is 36%. 22% of operators have an eSIM user base between 25% and 50%. However, only one of 50 respondents has an eSIM subscriber base exceeding 75%. 44% of respondents mentioned lack of consumer awareness as the biggest challenge in adopting the eSIM technology, while only 21% see the challenge in technical implementation.

The introduction of eSIM could change the market share of the operators who offer eSIM-enabled services and those who do not. In the US market, the overall introduction of eSIM has not yet led to customer churn.

Satellite networks and NTN 

New satellite technologies have made NTN (Non Terrestrial Networks) the best current option for mobile operators. Low Earth Orbit (LEO) systems have become cost-effective, as an addition and alternative to geostationary (GEO) systems. From among the respondents, 25% of market players chose LEO, and 12% GEO. Over 1/3 are considering multi-orbital options, and 29% are indecisive.

NTN could unlock $30 billion in revenue, but how can mobile operators unleash the potential? 49% think it practical to include the service in their service package, 27% of respondents treat NTN as a way to improve loyalty, 24% await monetisation through enhanced roaming capabilities driven by scalable NTN connection. However, 65% of operators are worried about high implementation costs, 38% are concerned about the technical limitations of existing NTN products and services, 29% consider low subscriber awareness as the key challenge, and 23% doubt about the demand.  

60% of respondents see transportation and logistics as the most promising markets. Next come agriculture, and energy/utilities: 45% and 44%, respectively. 38% think the automotive industry to be promising.

In 2025, further evolution of satellite telecommunication services is expected due to a higher demand for satellite communications services and technology development. 91 operators cooperate with satellite players to offer satellite connection as part of their service package. 2 billion IoT devices operate through satellite connections. By 2035, 10% of all devices will operate through satellite. By the end of 2035, satellite connections will bring mobile operators $30 billion per year. 

The introduction of satellite communications could result in certain consequences in terms of devices, chipsets, networks, services, and bandwidth, such as changes in communication standards, emergence of new devices, or change of radio spectrum of use.

NTN will also be an essential research topic in 2025, with analysts undertaking an in-depth review of the development of D2D, satellite-based IoT, and the advancement of sustainable development practices. A special focus will be on the transition from network building to its commercial use.

Digital Transformation in B2B

In 2024-2030, companies will spend 10% of revenue on digital transformation. The market volume for operators in the B2B technology and services sector (in addition to the very connection) will account for $400 billion. By the end of 2025, the global number of connections to the Internet of Things (cellular and other)will grow to 26 billion. The shares of consumer and corporate IoT are almost equal: 46% / 54%. Digital transformation is becoming a key success factor for businesses across all industries and countries. Telecom operators play a crucial role here by providing digital transformation solutions.

B2B technologies and services go beyond simple connectivity. Telecom operators offer a wide range of solutions for digital transformation of enterprises, including cloud technologies, edge computing, GenAI, and others. For operators, the B2B targeted market of technologies and services that go beyond connectivity accounts for about $400 billion. 

Fixed broadband 

Fixed broadband services are expected to improve dramatically. In 2025, the share of FTTP (Fibre to the Premises)/FTTB (Fibre to the Building (FTTB)) in total fixed broadband connections will make 76%. As at September 2024, 139 operators in 68 countries have launched 5G FWA (Fixed Wireless Access) networks. In 7 countries, the share of 5G FWA in total fixed broadband connections will exceed 15% by 2030.