Government procurement remains the primary driver of satcom, but new players are now also taking a stab at it — operators of the highly innovative business of satellite transmissions to unmodified smartphone or Direct-to-Device (D2D). The commercial launch services market is becoming a supplier market, as the deployment of mega-constellations has created queues to launch providers for several years to come. SpaceX's IPO could be a turning point for the entire space industry. All of the above, as well as other hot topics of the global satellite industry development were discussed at SATShow 2026 in Washington (USA).

Current Geopolitics: Pros and Cons for the Operator Market

The current political situation and conflicts in various parts of the world have triggered a sharp increase in demand for satellite communications among security and law enforcement agencies. And this is becoming one of the key growth points for the entire satcom industry, as concluded by satellite operator executives at SatShow 2026. This demand will only grow in the near future, and to meet it, operators are rebuilding and refurbishing existing infrastructure and drawing up new plans.

Canadien Telesat is reformatting its Lightspeed low-orbit constellation, dedicating a portion to military customers. It is approximately a quarter of the constellation of 156 satellites. This military cluster will be called Mil-Ka, and it is planned to allocate additional 500 MHz in the Ka-band for its operation. This approach increases the cost of the constellation by $255 million, but Telesat CEO Dan Goldberg is confident that the investment will generate revenue in the future. The Lightspeed constellation is scheduled to enter service in the first quarter of 2028.

The unstable geopolitical situation affects the existing business models of operators. This was stated by SES CEO Adel Al Saleh. It is becoming increasingly difficult for this satellite operator to understand how to serve Europe, the US, Asia and other regions. The rapidly changing world and blistering innovations are forcing all market players to accelerate, and the previous pace of satellite projects implementation is no acceptable. SES is currently developing a new Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) constellation — meoSphere. The K2 Space startup received an order for 28 satellites. SES will provide its software-defined payload, and K2 Space will build satellite bus. A series of test satellites will be launched over the next three years, with meoSphere scheduled to enter service in 2030.

The current political climate forces operators to completely rethink their approach to satellite network security, as both military and civil networks are increasingly under attack, says Viasat CEO Mark Dankberg.

In India and Asia-Pacific region (AsiaPac), the role of the state as an investor and driver of the space industry is also becoming a leading one. Government of India is actively pursuing contracts with the private sector, creating additional demand for a wide range of space services. Work is underway to simplify regulations to eliminate restrictions on foreign direct investments in the domestic space startups.

Players are very positive about the market's capacity: India and AsiaPac are home for 60% of the world's population, and several major players can operate and compete successfully here. This is especially true for satellite communications, as the region has a particularly high demand for services to extend the coverage of terrestrial networks and eliminate the digital divide.

The speed of technological progress is forcing changes to business models – this has become a common opinion among all satellite operators. Innovations are implemented at lightning speed, so operators need to respond and create an infrastructure that can quickly and efficiently serve consumers. First of all,customers from security and law enforcement agencies.

Mobile Communications are the Key Prospect

At the conference, representatives of satellite operators were asked: on what markets, in their opinion, there was potential for growth?

Eutelsat CEO Jean-François Fallacher sees great potential in satellite communications for commercial aviation and maritime communications. Ali Al Hashemi, CEO of Space Services for Space42, notes the prospects of D2D. Adel Al-Saleh from SES also drew attention to aviation, but noted that satellite media should not be discounted. The sector has hit a rough patch recently, but, in general, it is still strong and profitable. There is a growing demand for real-time media transmission, primarily for the broadcasting of sports competitions. Mark Dankberg from Viasat also noted the prospects for communications on the move, while Telesat's Dan Goldberg sees growing demand for communications between diverse satellite constellations, including constellations for different purposes.

Order Lists of Launch Providers are Full

Commercial launch companies are scrambling to meet the growing demand for the deployment of multiple mega-constellations. Plus, there's a trend to launch sovereign satellite systems, develop military projects, and implement NASA's ambitious civilian space programs. The problem is not only in a shortage of rockets. Launch schedules are being disrupted by delays in satellite deliveries, forcing launch providers to constantly reschedule and demonstrate a high degree of flexibility.

All launch service providers are working under great strain, and the frequency of launches needs to be further increased. SpaceX talks about a tough schedule for 2026–2028, and a very tight one for 2029. In 2025, the company conducted 165 launches, breaking its own record set in 2024 — 134 launches. SpaceX's main goal today is to put the Starship launch vehicle into regular operation.

Arianespace, which launched its Ariane 64 rocket for the first time in February 2026, plans to double its launch frequency in the coming years: from 7 to 8 in 2026, and from 9 to 10 in 2027. Due to growing demand, the company is prioritising the Ariane 64 super-heavy rocket and reducing the number of launches of the Ariane 62 medium-class launch vehicle. Arianespace CEO David Cavailloles said the company was working to reach its target of 10 launches per year.

Blue Origin and ULA are bringing their heavy-lift launch vehicles into service. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) plans to increase the frequency of launches of the H3 super-heavy rocket to eight per year by the end of 2028. To date, H3 has made five successful launches and two unsuccessful ones.

In the Asia-Pacific region, demand for commercial launches is also growing, as there is a demand for sovereignty, but there is no sign of regional commercial launch provider.

Amazon LEO is Late

Overloaded with launch orders, the operator is under pressure to persuade regulators to relax strict rules governing the deployment of low-orbit satellites. Today, just over 200 Amazon LEO satellites are in orbit. 200 more satellites are ready for launch. The company has contracts for more than 100 launches with four launch service providers: Arianespace, Space X, United Launch Alliance, and Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin. Just over twenty launches are planned for this year. According to the requirements of the American regulator Federal Communication Commission (FCC), by the end of July this year there should be more than 1,600 satellites in orbit. But under the most favourable circumstances, the company will not launch more than 700 satellites by this deadline. Therefore, Amazon LEO is asking FCC for a deferment, citing a shortage of orbital launch capacity.

Ground Segment Must be Cloud-Based

Today, the ground segment lags far behind the space segment in its development. But space constellations without proper user terminals are useless and ineffective. An adequate ground segment for prospective mega-constellations would be something similar to a cloud structure.

The user terminal market is being actively influenced by large vertically integrated companies like Starlink and Amazon Leo, which are able to drive down prices through a high degree of integration, mass production, and rapid innovations.

Geostationary systems have left the consumer segment of satellite broadband, but corporate clients requiring multi-orbit service remain for equipment vendors. The loss of B2C may be a shame, but on the other hand, by focusing on the corporate sector, vendors will be able to meet the specific needs of each client.

If developers are forced out of the user terminal market, they will be left with two promising niches. The first is the orchestration and control systems for satellite constellations. Non-geostationary communication mega-constellations will actively interact with each other, as well as with earth surface monitoring constellations and geostationary systems. And this will be a niche for developers – specialised systems and services for orchestration and management.

The second niche is provider-focused D2D equipment. The development of D2D services will require equipment, technologies and protocols for Internet providers to distribute their services. High-speed, reliable earth stations that provide satellite connection to the local network will be in demand by the market.

D2D Aims for Government Contracts

The World Mobile Congress (WMC) held in Barcelona in early March this year, where satellite communications became one of the main topics, painted an extremely bright future for D2D technology. However, some experts warn against setting expectations too high. The technology is promising, but its future has not yet acquired clear numerical values. Iridium CEO Matt Desch pointed out that the potential market size was uncertain. He recalled that at the dawn of the mobile satellite communications market, estimates ranged from $3 to $4 billion. Even now, the D2D market's potential is projected to range from $10 billion to $1 trillion. This all calls for caution in this area. The real development of D2D, according to Desch, can be expected in 2029-2035.

But there are also more optimistic forecasts. As already mentioned, the Mobile World Congress had its influence. SES CEO Adel Al-Saleh's conversations with colleagues in Barcelona left the impression that mobile operators were literally lining up to launch the service. Late last year, Lynk Global and Omnispace announced a merger with SES becoming the major strategic shareholder. At SATShow 2026, the companies announced the launch of D2D services in mid-2027. The combination of Lynk's technology, Omnispace's harmonised S-band spectrum, and SES's ground-based and medium-orbit traffic routing capabilities will enable the alliance to offer realistic pricing for services that mass consumers will be willing to pay.

In 2025, AST SpaceMobile acquired the rights to the S-band, which was coordinated for global mobile satellite services. At the end of 2025, the company launched a next-generation satellite – Bluebird 6 – for testing the network. Although the system has global coverage and the operator has agreements with numerous partners in many countries, network operaion will begin in the most commercially promising regions - the United States (including servicing government agencies), Canada, Europe and Japan. And, according to AST SpaceMobile CEO Scott Wisniewski, this is a great start. In general, the operator places high hopes on the government customer, assuming that, in the long run, operation in the defence industry could become a multi-billion-dollar business.

SpaceX's IPO is a Key Moment for the Entire Space Economy

The space industry has become extremely attractive to investors, as noted by Seraphim Space CEO Mark Boggett. In 2025, $12 billion were invested in space technologies. This is almost 50% more than the previous year. Last year's investment surpassed the high recorded in 2021, and Boggett believes this is only the beginning of an upward trend. He also noted the dynamics of some stocks in 2025: Planet Labs grew by 390%, AST SpaceMobile by 245%, and Rocket Lab by 175%.

The most high-profile event was SpaceX's preparation for an IPO. The preliminary estimate is $1.75 trillion, or 1.75% of the entire global economy. At this scale, this IPO has the potential to become a turning point in the development of the space industry. SpaceX's IPO will catalyse new strategic investments in the space economy. Investors will no longer be able to ignore space.

However, it is also worth remembering the failure of space SPAC mergers, which peaked in 2020-2021, but then declined, and even crashed, in the following two years. So, investors must be aware of the risks, and startups must have viable and realistic business plans.

Boggett believes that mergers and acquisitions, as well as vertical integration, will continue in 2026.

In addition to the above topics, SATShow 2026 discussed numerous military projects, sovereignty in the space business as a commodity, and the growing demand for sovereign satellite systems. A separate topic was the use of artificial intelligence in the industry, primarily in earth monitoring systems, to transmit only necessary information and avoid clogging channels with unnecessary traffic.

Over the past five years, the opinion that satellite communications should become an integral part of the digital information and communications ecosystem has been regularly voiced at many specialised forums. Now that the advantages of space communications are being discussed beyond the satellite community, and traditional telecoms have come to see satellite operators as full-fledged players, it can be said that this idea is becoming a reality. It is no coincidence that the industry's largest IPO is taking place at this very moment. Innovation and new business approaches have reached critical mass, and the future promises fully connected, multi-orbit, and multifunctional systems that, combined with a cloud-based ground segment, will bring new quality not only to space communications, but to the entire global digital ecosystem.